Development and Validation of Nomograms to Predict Local, Regional, and Distant Recurrence in Patients With Thin (T1) Melanomas.
Abstract Purpose: Although the prognosis of patients with thin primary cutaneous melanomas (T1, ≤ 1.0 mm) is generally excellent, some develop recurrence. We sought to develop and validate a model predicting recurrences in patients with thin melanomas. Methods: A Dutch population-based cohort (n = 25,930, development set) and a cohort from an Australian melanoma treatment center (n = 2,968, validation set) were analyzed (median follow-up 6.7 and 12.0 years, respectively). Multivariable Cox models were generated for local, regional, and distant recurrence-free survival (RFS). Discrimination was assessed using Harrell's C-statistic for each outcome. Each nomogram performance was evaluated using calibration plots defining [...]
Tumour gene expression signature in primary melanoma predicts long-term outcomes.
Abstract Adjuvant systemic therapies are now routinely used following resection of stage III melanoma, however accurate prognostic information is needed to better stratify patients. We use differential expression analyses of primary tumours from 204 RNA-sequenced melanomas within a large adjuvant trial, identifying a 121 metastasis-associated gene signature. This signature strongly associated with progression-free (HR = 1.63, p = 5.24 × 10-5) and overall survival (HR = 1.61, p = 1.67 × 10-4), was validated in 175 regional lymph nodes metastasis as well as two externally ascertained datasets. The machine learning classification models trained using the signature genes performed significantly [...]
Desmoplastic melanoma: a review of its pathology and clinical behaviour, and of management recommendations in published guidelines.
Abstract Desmoplastic melanomas are uncommon. Their behaviour differs from that of other melanoma subtypes; therefore, management guidelines for non-desmoplastic melanomas may not be applicable. This review sought to examine all available evidence relating to the behaviour and management of desmoplastic melanomas, based on review of all relevant English-language publications, and to critically assess the recommendations for their management in current published melanoma management guidelines. Compared with other melanoma subtypes, patients with 'pure' desmoplastic melanomas (where ≥90% of the invasive melanoma is of desmoplastic melanoma subtype) have much lower rates of sentinel node positivity and distant metastasis. Local recurrence rates [...]