Predicting sentinel node positivity in patients with melanoma: external validation of a risk-prediction calculator (the Melanoma Institute Australia nomogram) using a large European population-based patient cohort.
Abstract Background: A nomogram to predict sentinel node (SN) positivity [the Melanoma Institute Australia (MIA) nomogram] was recently developed and externally validated using two large single-institution databases. However, there remains a need to further validate the nomogram's performance using population-based data. Objectives: To perform further validation of the nomogram using a European national patient cohort. Methods: Patients with cutaneous melanoma who underwent SN biopsy in the Netherlands between 2000 and 2014 were included. Their data were obtained from the Dutch Pathology Registry. The predictive performance of the nomogram was assessed by discrimination (C-statistic) and calibration. Negative predictive values (NPVs) were calculated at [...]
Development and Validation of Nomograms to Predict Local, Regional, and Distant Recurrence in Patients With Thin (T1) Melanomas.
Abstract Purpose: Although the prognosis of patients with thin primary cutaneous melanomas (T1, ≤ 1.0 mm) is generally excellent, some develop recurrence. We sought to develop and validate a model predicting recurrences in patients with thin melanomas. Methods: A Dutch population-based cohort (n = 25,930, development set) and a cohort from an Australian melanoma treatment center (n = 2,968, validation set) were analyzed (median follow-up 6.7 and 12.0 years, respectively). Multivariable Cox models were generated for local, regional, and distant recurrence-free survival (RFS). Discrimination was assessed using Harrell's C-statistic for each outcome. Each nomogram performance was evaluated using calibration plots defining [...]
Desmoplastic melanoma: a review of its pathology and clinical behaviour, and of management recommendations in published guidelines.
Abstract Desmoplastic melanomas are uncommon. Their behaviour differs from that of other melanoma subtypes; therefore, management guidelines for non-desmoplastic melanomas may not be applicable. This review sought to examine all available evidence relating to the behaviour and management of desmoplastic melanomas, based on review of all relevant English-language publications, and to critically assess the recommendations for their management in current published melanoma management guidelines. Compared with other melanoma subtypes, patients with 'pure' desmoplastic melanomas (where ≥90% of the invasive melanoma is of desmoplastic melanoma subtype) have much lower rates of sentinel node positivity and distant metastasis. Local recurrence rates [...]